Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.995696 7.126436 8.374860 9.850349 11.541164 13.412661 15.635167
2025-02-16 3.970385 5.395617 7.147513 9.435470 12.318120 15.801130 20.296140
2025-02-23 2.742099 4.207274 6.188276 9.006990 12.849682 17.833117 24.699165
2025-03-02 1.945646 3.341020 5.398447 8.556233 13.163078 19.502879 28.719627
2025-03-09 1.495462 2.842165 4.986065 8.498622 13.924054 21.765098 33.671601
2025-03-16 1.150651 2.411875 4.571227 8.329924 14.444431 23.675998 38.240883
2025-03-23 0.994285 2.263868 4.573053 8.795761 15.956008 27.145150 45.332411
2025-03-30 0.822278 2.038541 4.390579 8.907971 16.885454 29.773601 51.327972
2025-04-06 0.675575 1.823064 4.179657 8.924970 17.634299 32.150633 57.078362
2025-04-13 0.554642 1.628616 3.968226 8.898995 18.286137 34.397070 62.751503
2025-04-20 0.515220 1.614231 4.117755 9.576461 20.252863 38.972180 72.508740
2025-04-27 0.452531 1.524010 4.087688 9.887598 21.564521 42.508676 80.743312
2025-05-04 0.398379 1.444946 4.076761 10.254316 23.052293 46.523656 90.162382
2025-05-11 0.328919 1.300774 3.888393 10.220743 23.765452 49.226001 97.524330
2025-05-18 0.258734 1.127614 3.591664 9.900822 23.866162 50.812734 103.023515
2025-05-25 0.198231 0.959396 3.266923 9.459948 23.658188 51.790590 107.472861
2025-06-01 0.163098 0.865217 3.119295 9.414185 24.274921 54.372328 114.994011
2025-06-08 0.130686 0.765533 2.931356 9.236096 24.576776 56.350373 121.494570
2025-06-15 0.120501 0.754740 3.007627 9.746706 26.469040 61.608072 134.476606
2025-06-22 0.103029 0.702490 2.941991 9.869937 27.478712 65.136071 144.309885
2025-06-29 0.086320 0.644575 2.843806 9.888770 28.242668 68.203841 153.405145
2025-07-06 0.071605 0.587861 2.735167 9.860531 28.887994 71.059985 162.226079
2025-07-13 0.069703 0.602557 2.884441 10.599406 31.471184 78.164641 179.835928